Share Market Highlights: Sensex ends more than 200 pts lower, Nifty settles below 18,600; hawkish RBI tone drags – The Financial Express

The Financial Express
Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices Highlights: Indian benchmark indices ended lower in the volatile session amid weak global cues. BSE Sensex fell over 200 points to close at 62,410 and NSE Nifty 50 index settled at 18,560. Markets turned volatile after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent. In the broader markets, the BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices fell up to 0.56%. HCL Tech, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Tech M, Kotak Bank were the top Sensex laggards, down up to 0.7%, while ONGC was the top Nifty loser. On the flip side, Asian Paints, L&T, ICICI Bank, SBI, Ultratech Cement, Sun Pharma, Cipla and BPCL were the top gainers across the two frontline indices.
Asian Paints, L&T, ICICI Bank, SBI, Ultratech Cement, Sun Pharma, Cipla and BPCL were the top gainers across the two frontline indices.
HCL Tech, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Tech M, Kotak Bank were the top Sensex laggards, down up to 0.7%, while ONGC was the top Nifty loser.
BSE Sensex fell over 200 points to close at 62,410 and NSE Nifty 50 index settled at 18,560.
“The RBI's decision to hike the repo rate by 35 bps is on the much-expected lines with the primary goal of keeping inflation in check. Although this will lead to a marginal rise in lending rates, it may not be of much deterrence for the real estate industry backed by the positive sentiments of homebuyers and strong demand influenced due to the price rise of Indian real estate in the days to come. The current stance on the repo rate will have lower impact on the mortgage rate, as the pace of hike has been moderated and hence perceived positively by the home buyer.”
Nitin Bavisi, Group CFO, Ajmera Realty & Infra India
“As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee increased the policy rate by 35 bps with a majority decision of five out of six members voting for it, and more importantly, re-iterated its intention of withdrawing accommodative policies. The RBI governor exhibited confidence in India's growth trajectory but mentioned that it is crucial to be vigilant to the secondary effects of high global commodities, especially energy and food prices. We believe the MPC decisions today are on expected lines and would not have any major impact on Indian markets, purely based on decisions announced today.”
Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities PMS
“Expectations for RBI policy We expect crude to fall significantly from its recent high. If the government passes this on to consumers, we believe the RBI will pause in its next policy. We also believe that the market will remain neutral in the coming days and that it will set new highs in December.”
Ravi Singhal, CEO, GCL
“The RBI’s approval to hedge gold at IFSC is a positive move and a major enabler for gold importers and exporters using yellow metal as the primary raw material for production. This will help increase the price competitiveness of the Indian jewellery industry. It will help players hedge their positions against price fluctuations and unfavorable currency movement. This will also lead to an increase in volumes and activities at IFSC.”
Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry
“RBI's monetary policy was on expected lines with a 35-bps hike and promised to do more. Their comments on Rupee were also in line with their previous comments. They target volatility and Rupee remains stable on a REER basis. In a way it means, RBI would be watching closely after volatility has increased in USDINR, over the past two trading sessions. But without active intervention or announcement of sell-buy swap, we could see USDINR move higher. We expect a range of 82.00 and 83.00.”
Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities
“RBI maintained status quo in its stance of withdrawal of accommodation raising repo rate by 35 bps as expected to 6.25%. With no indication on any immediate target on terminal repo rate we expect GSec yields to stay elevated and liquidity to be managed effectively by RBI as need arises using various instruments.”
Prashant Pimple Chief Investment Officer – Fixed Income, Baroda BNP Paribas Asset Management India
“It’s a welcome move by the RBI to permit hedging at the International Financial Services Centre. This will not only increase the participation on IFSC, but also provide as an effective and efficient tool to hedge in India avoiding offshore routes.”
Navneet Damani, Sr. VP, Currency and Commodity, MOFSL
“RBI policy action was on expected lines and hence yields across the curve haven’t moved much. Apart from inflation trends, we believe that RBI will also be guided by USD-INR movement in determining further policy actions. There is hardly any term spread between the 10 yr yield and 3-5 year yields for both G-sec and AAA segments. Hence, for core fixed income portfolio allocation, we continue to maintain bias towards Target Maturity Funds which invest in the 3-5 year maturity bucket with underlying portfolio being a combination of G-sec, State Development Loans (SDLs), and AAA-rated instruments.”
Nitin Shanbhag, Sr. Executive Group VP, Head – Investment Products, Motilal Oswal Private Wealth
“Availability of adequate liquidity for the productive sector of the economy has been assured by RBI which augurs well for the stock market, which is now seeing new major entrants and continued foreign inflow. The extension of time for 'Hold To Maturity' categorisation of fresh bank investments in bonds till March 2024, paves the way for stability in the bond market/financial sector and future government borrowing. Overall pragmatic revisions of the monetary policy by RBI considering the uncertainties and volatility both at domestic and international fronts.”
Jyoti Prakash Gadia, Managing Director, Resurgent India
“Now as we have another 35-bps increase in repo rate the EMI’s are expected to go up further by another ~3-5%. As far as loan tenor increase is concerned, I don’t think there is much room for loan tenor increase beyond the 13 years already done till date, due to 190 bps previous increases.

Home loan borrowers who have had their home loan original interest rate at 10-11% and initial loan tenors above 25 years would have had no option but to increase their EMI because any attempt to increase their loan tenor would result in loan becoming negatively amortized. Meaning, the original EMI would not be sufficient to cover the monthly interest payable with the existing EMI thereby resulting in the loan principal increasing every month instead of reducing.

Most banks have fully passed on the repo rate increase of 190 bps to the consumers of home loans till date. This rate hike of 190 bps has resulted in a loan tenor increase of ~ 13 years for borrowers who had initially opted for 20 years loan period, assuming they had taken a home loan at 6% at the time of home purchase. Alternatively, those borrowers who opted for an EMI increase instead of a loan tenor increase have seen their EMI go up by ~20% already.”
Shrikant Shrivastava, Chief Risk Officer, IMGC
“Nifty is witnessing some profit booking from the 18,888 level; however, the overall texture is still bullish, where 18,600–18,550 is an immediate demand zone and the 20-DMA around 18,440 is the next support level. On the upside, 18,735 is an immediate hurdle, and then 18,888 and 19,000 are the next resistance levels.
Bank Nifty is consolidating nicely above the 9-DMA, while the 20-DMA around 42700 is the next important support level. On the upside, 43,500 is an immediate hurdle; above this, we can expect fresh momentum towards 44,000.”
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart
“The markets had a muted immediate reaction to the RBI announcement, with little movement on either side. Nifty and Banks stayed on an upward bias during the announcement with some volatility. We see banks staying strong with this announcement as the interest income gets stronger with the rate hike. There is concern about the export sector given the slowdown in the global economy and consumer sectors to remain robust as rural demand is seen increasing and inflation moderating. The consumer goods sector has remained most robust today as the governor acknowledged the strong domestic economy and high manufacturing PMI.”
Sonam Srivastava, Founder, Wright Research
“The financial sector has historically been among the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Typically, during a rising interest rate scenario, the banking sector passes on rate hikes through the floating rate loans while delaying the rate hikes for deposits, benefitting from spreads, and expanding margins. A change in stance to dovish going forward by RBI will lead to rally in the banking segment. Overall, economy seems to be in good shape and a peak rate of 6.7% is not an unusually high number for domestic markets, thus we don’t see any material impact on the stock market but second order consumption impact we will watching closely, especially on the consumption side.”
Anil Rego, Founder, Fund Manager, Right Horizon
“RBI's monetary policy was on expected lines with 35-bps hike and promise to do more. Their comments on Rupee was also in line with their previous comments. They target volatility and Rupee remains stable on a REER basis. In a way it means, RBI would be watching closely after volatility has increased in USDINR, over the past two trading sessions. But without active intervention or annoucement of sell-buy swap, we could see USDINR move higher. We expect a range of 82.00 and 83.00.”
– Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives, Kotak Securities
As the RBI Governor concludes his address, the Nifty IT and Nifty Media indices are the biggest sectoral losers so far, down over 0.5% each. LTIMindtree, Persistent Systems and L&T Technology Systems drag the IT index, while Network18, PVR and Saregama fall the most in the Media index.
“Markets must wean away from liquidity surplus overhang, all money markets to function from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm”, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
“The RBI MPC raised repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25% with 5-1 vote. The stance remained focused on withdrawal of accommodation. While this was ours as well market consensus, it seems like we may not be fully done with the rate hiking cycle. The inflation guard continues to remain. Key to now track FOMC outcome in the coming week. Expect bond markets to give up some gains and trade range bound as global growth concerns dominate.”
Lakshmi Iyer, CEO – Investment Advisory, Kotak Investment Advisors
As the RBI has hiked the repo rate by 35 bps, taking it to 6.25%, Bank Nifty stocks are seen rising in trade today, while the index gains over 100 points. The top gainers are AU Bank, ICICI Bank, Punjab National Bank, Bandhan Bank, IDFC First Bank and SBI.
The most active stocks on the NSE Nifty are Excel (down 7.69%), Central Bank (up 7.21%), Suzlon (up 0.98%), UCO Bank (up 5.44%) and Yes Bank (up 0.29%).
NTPC (down 1.14%), Tata Motors (down 1.07%), ONGC (down 0.81%), Kotak Bank (down 0.80%) and HCL Tech (down 0.80%) are the biggest losers of the Nifty 50 index amid RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das' address.
BPCL (up 2.04%), L&T (up 1.54%), Hindustan Unilever (1.02%), Asian Paints (up 0.92%) and ICICI Bank (up 0.86%) are the top Nifty 50 gainers amid RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das' address.
RBI MPC revises FY23 GDP growth to 6.8% from 7%.
Real GDP growth pegged at 7.1% in and at 5.3% in Q2FY23 by RBI governor Shaktikanta Das.
RBI MPC raises the repo rate by 35 bps, raising the nation's repo rate to 6.25% with 5 out of 6 members voting for the hike.
Bank Nifty is up over 100 points at 43,250, as investors are optimistic about 25-35 bps hike in the repo rate. AU Bank (up 1.53%), ICICI Bank (up 0.97%), Punjab National Bank (up 0.81%) and IDFC First Bank (up 0.58%) are leading the gains.
The NSE Nifty Auto index falls almost 0.2% before the RBI MPC meet. Constituents Tata Motors (down 1.02%), Sonacoms (down 0.47%), M&M (down 0.42%) and Hero MotoCorp (down 0.33%) are the laggards of the index.
The Nifty PSU Bank index continues to rally, rising almost 6% over the past five days. The index is up 0.91% before the RBI MPC meet, demonstrating positive investor sentiment as traders expect higher interest rates. Central Bank (up 7.4%), Indian Overseas Bank (up 5.87%), UCO Bank (up 5.44%), Maharashtra Bank (up 2.99%) are leading the gains.
The Indian rupee is expected to depreciate on Wednesday amid a strong dollar and risk aversion in global markets. Further, persistent FII outflows may hurt the rupee. Investors will remain vigilant ahead of RBI’s monetary policy, where the central bank may slow down the pace of rate hikes. The rate hike is expected to be in the range of 25-35 bps.
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Domestic indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty trade flat in the morning session, down 0.05%, as investors await cues from the RBI MPC meeting.
“The near-term cues have turned negative once again with weakness in the mother market, the US. Talks of longer-than-expected recession have again surfaced and negative comments from influential voices like that of Jamie Dimon are impacting sentiments. In such a scenario there are no positive triggers that can take the market much higher from here. Since India’s growth resilience looks impressive the market is unlikely to dip sharply. Buying will emerge on declines. Leading PSB banks have potential to move up further and valuations are still attractive. Investors can buy high quality stocks in capital goods and cement at current levels.”
Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services 
After dropping over 0.3% in the pre-open session, the domestic indices Sensex and Nifty recover their losses to end the session marginally in the red.
The domestic indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty trade in the red during the morning's pre-open session. Sensex is down by over 150 points, while Nifty gave up 18,600.
“Markets are likely to witness a choppy trend in early trades Wednesday amid weakness in other Asian indices, as RBI's monetary policy meeting on interest rates will be keenly eyed by the investors. Even as inflation is far beyond the MPC’s upper threshold of 6%, there could still be a smaller rate hike of 25-35 basis points. RBI's statement on the inflation & growth outlook would determine the market sentiment in the near term. Technically, investors should refrain from taking large leveraged positions until Nifty clears its all-time-high at 18,888 mark. The line in the sand is at Nifty’s support at 18,417. Banking & other rate-sensitive stocks could be volatile during the scope of the meeting. For Bank Nifty, the make-or-break support is at 42,200.”
Prashanth Tapse – Research Analyst, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities
“USDINR spot closed at 82.62, up 81 paise, highest levels since 4th November, on the back of unwinding of carry trades and corporate dollar demand. Once the spot crossed 82, stops may have been triggered by importers and bank dealers and that accentuated the rise. USDINR forward premium is trading at the lowest levels since 2011 and low forward premiums are hurting dollar supply. It is making carry trade unviable and also reducing exporter hedging. At the same time, it is making Rupee vulnerable to global shocks.
Indian Rupee has become one of the weakest currencies across a broad basket of currencies on a year to date basis. However, over the near term, we expect central bank intervention to emerge at higher levels and as a result a range of 81.80 and 83.00 may unfold over the near term.”
Anindya Banerjee, VP – Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities
“A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart at the lows. “After the formation of bullish hammer type candle pattern on Monday, Nifty shifted into a consolidation movement at the lows on Tuesday and closed above the low of hammer at 18591 levels. This is a positive indication and it raises hopes for an upside bounce soon in the market. Though, the market declined in the last three sessions, sharp weakness or any significant negative reversal pattern is absent. The Nifty remains in a consolidation movement with gradual weakness. The market is expected to witness upside bounce from near the support of 18550 levels in the next 1-2 sessions,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday retained India’s economic growth forecast at 7% for the current fiscal, saying India could be one of the fastest-growing emerging markets this year. However, it cut the projections for the next two financial years, stating that even though the country is shielded to some extent from global economic shocks but is not impervious to global developments. “India is expected to record one of the fastest growth rates among emerging markets in our Fitch20 coverage this year (FY23),” it said.
Punjab National Bank, GNFC, and Indiabulls Housing Finance are the three stocks under NSE’s F&O ban list for 7 December. Securities thus banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts have crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net-sold shares worth Rs 635.35 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net-offloaded shares worth Rs 558.67 crore on 6 December, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.
“Once Nifty sustains 18750 levels, we can expect a rally till 18900 levels. Volume profile indicates that index may find support around 18450-18500 zone. Coming to the OI Data, on the call side, the highest OI observed at 18800, followed by 18900 strike price while on the put side, the highest OI was at 18500, followed by 18400 strike price. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 42700-42500 zone while resistance is placed at 43600. The long-term investor may appear to have slightly changed in its investment approach as selective mid-cap and small-cap stocks currently look appealing,” said Om Mehra, Technical Associate, Choice Broking.
Shares in the Asia-Pacific slipped on Wednesday after major U.S. indexes fell more than 1 percent each overnight as recession concerns weigh on markets. The Nikkei 225 in Japan was down 0.69 percent in early trade and the Topix also fell 0.17 percent. South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.47 percent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.28 percent. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.86 percent as the nation’s economy grew by 0.6 percent in the third quarter.
Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 extending its losing streak to four sessions, as skittish investors fretted over Federal Reserve rate hikes and further talk of a looming recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350.76 points, or 1.03 percent, to close at 33,596.34, the S&P 500 lost 57.58 points, or 1.44 percent, to finish at 3,941.26 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225.05 points, or 2 percent, to end on 11,014.89.
SGX Nifty hinted at a negative start for domestic equities as Nifty futures traded 33 pts lower at 18719 level on the Singapore Exchange.

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